Brad Stevens has never hidden his appreciation for Al Horford.
Even in the wake of trading Daniel Theis in March, Stevens used the opportunity to lavish high praise onto Horford. Before Theis, Stevens said the best two defensive communicators and directors he had ever coached were Horford and Aron Baynes. While playing with those guys, Stevens said, Theis and Robert Williams had no choice but to follow suit.
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“When you talk about leadership, you talk about things that people see on the outside, or think they see on the outside,” Stevens said. “That’s real leadership. That’s corporate knowledge that’s been passed down. Doing your job in a pivotal role for all five guys on the court. And I think that’s why those guys are who they are, that’s why we appreciated them so much.”
Horford has already made a mark on the Celtics organization. But what will he give the team now at age 35? How will his presence transform a Boston club hoping for a turnaround after a 36-36 season? Here are a few ways he should make a difference — good and bad.
1. Spacing and passing
These two belong in the same category. At least for Horford, they go together.
The Celtics haven’t had a pick-and-pop big man since he left. Theis took some 3-pointers, but didn’t have the same ability to attack a closeout and keep the offense flowing. Horford is just a much better playmaker. In the years since leaving Boston, he has also become a more willing 3-point shooter. This past season, he attempted 7.0 3-pointers per 36 minutes, almost double the amount he tried when last in Boston. Some of that could obviously be a factor of his supporting cast in Oklahoma City, but Horford appears to have grown more comfortable letting it fly.
His presence alone will diversify the Celtics offense. It could also provide Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown with easier reads. Horford simplified things for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season:
On this possession, Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t need to do anything fancy or complicated. When two defenders stayed with him on the pick and roll, he knew he just needed to deliver an easy pass to Horford. The big man took it from there.
Stevens made the trade partly for financial reasons, but also believes Horford should help the players around him. Any way he can ease the burden on Tatum and Brown should help, especially since losing Walker will put even more of a burden on them. Horford has always been useful as a pressure valve.
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“His impact on others and his ability to lift others is one of his great strengths,” Stevens said.
The Celtics finished 27th in assist percentage last season. Horford should spice up the ball movement whenever he’s on the court. Between him and Williams, the Celtics now have two centers who can really facilitate. Horford does it while rarely committing turnovers. His sure-handedness should help a team that was too mistake-prone.
The extra dose of playmaking Horford provides should be useful when opponents sell out to double-team Tatum. It’s not always wise to give such a talented playmaker an easy 4-on-3 advantage:
2. Less rebounding
Regardless of who loses minutes to make way for Horford, the Celtics’ ability to crash the glass out of the center spot should plummet. Williams and Tristan Thompson both graded out among the NBA’s top offensive rebounders last season. As a team, the Celtics ranked third in offensive rebound rate. Assuming Horford plays significant minutes, the team will likely fall down that list — and maybe far down it.
Horford grabbed just 3.8 percent of available offensive rebounds last season in Oklahoma City, the lowest offensive rebound rate of his career. For the sake of reference, that’s a lot closer to Semi Ojeleye (3.6 percent) and Payton Pritchard (2.9 percent) than it is to either Williams (14.9 percent) or Thompson (14.5 percent). Horford should have easier chances to grab boards next season. His Celtics teammates will draw a lot more attention than his Thunder teammates did. Still, Horford will play on the perimeter far more often than Williams or Thompson did. And rebounding has never been Horford’s greatest strength.
The Celtics had a much different roster during Horford’s first stint with the team, but never finished better than 19th in offensive rebound rate while he was playing big minutes. Over the years, his teams have consistently been much worse in that category with him on the floor. The discrepancy has been more obvious than ever over the past three seasons, as shown by Cleaning The Glass’s on-off data.
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Another trend for Horford: His team’s free throw rate regularly dips when he’s on the court. His teams have all been worse in that category with him in the lineup since 2011-12. The big man only attempted 22 free throws over 28 games played this past season, a stat that almost feels impossible for a 6-foot-10 center. That’s one of the red flags age may be catching up to him, but he was still effective last season in many other ways despite playing for a Thunder team that lacked talent.
3. Bigger lineups?
At this stage of his career, Horford is mostly a center. The league has downsized around him and he’s gotten a touch creakier. He can’t always keep up at power forward, as his time with the 76ers showed.
Despite that, the Celtics seem to think Horford can still play alongside another center in certain matchups.
“I do think, for instance, Tristan’s ability to switch and Tristan’s ability to rebound allows him to play with a spacer like Al, who also has a lot of flexibility,” Stevens said. “Rob’s ability to play in the dunker and hitting Al in the seams and playing with the lob game gives you flexibility.”
Will that necessarily be a good look all the time? No. It may never be a good look. But the Celtics believe Horford is more equipped than Theis was to play power forward in bigger units. A traditional frontcourt could be interesting to try against, say, the Bucks. Horford could guard Giannis Antetokounmpo man to man. Williams could help off the weak side. The Celtics would have more size without sacrificing as much offense as they did when they paired Theis and Thompson this past season. Groups with Horford and another center could also be susceptible defensively due to a lack of versatility, but the Celtics are likely to at least try the option next season. Several playoff teams in the Eastern Conference boast impressive physicality at the power forward position.
“Those are things we’ll have to figure out,” Stevens said.
The next coach will be in charge of lineup decisions. Stevens runs the front office now. A lot has changed in Boston since Horford left the organization two summers ago. He hasn’t made an All-Star team since 2018, but should still make a difference.
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“Al can move the needle,” Stevens said. “Al had a good year in Oklahoma City. Obviously didn’t play a ton of games … but statistically had a year that obviously applies across the board. Again, I think that sometimes the ability to space, pass, play in different ways and play in different coverages at the other end, be able to play with other bigs or as the lone 5 I think is something that (should help). He just has a wealth of experience.”
The Celtics have benefited from it before and think they will again.
(Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
Jay King is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Boston Celtics. He previously covered the team for MassLive for five years. He also co-hosts the "Anything Is Poddable" podcast. Follow Jay on Twitter @byjayking
