What is the stock market prediction for 2024?
The market sees a greater than 80% chance of at least five rate cuts from current levels by the end of 2024. Investor optimism about the economic outlook has improved dramatically from a year ago, but there's still a risk that Fed policy tightening could tip the economy into a recession in 2024.
Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023
I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
The intrigue deepens when we consider the anticipated decline in interest rates for 2024. According to conventional wisdom, this should herald another favorable year for growth stocks relative to value. Yet, the lessons from 2023 remind us that markets are unpredictable, and historical patterns may not always hold.
Name | Book Value | 1 Year (%) |
---|---|---|
J Taparia Projects | ₹ 18.56 | 345.61% |
Rasi Electrodes | ₹ 9.45 | 52.90% |
3P Land Holdings | ₹ 37.75 | 24.68% |
SAL Steel | ₹ 4.87 | 110.65% |
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
The updated Dow Jones price prediction for the next 5 years is for the index to trade around 45,000 points. Long Forecast predicts Dow Jones to trade at 39071 points in the first month of 2024 and and advance up to 48,000 points by the end of the year.
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
To reach 50,000, the Dow wouldn't even need to double — it would require a 31.6% gain from the 38,000 level. If the DJIA companies only earned the current 1.77% dividend yield, it would take 15.6 years for the index to reach the 50,000 mark.
The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).
What to invest in 2024?
- Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) ...
- Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) ...
- UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) Number of Q4 2023 Hedge Fund Shareholders: 113. ...
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) ...
- Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) ...
- Apple Inc. ...
- Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) ...
- Visa Inc.
The shift up in portfolio returns reflects a 7.4% expected annualized return for U.S. stocks in the next 10 years, up from the 6.5% assumption made last year.
Over the next decade, Schwab expects market returns to fall short of long-term historical averages due to shifts in interest rates, growth prospects, and stock valuations.
- Fintech company SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) is set to have an excellent 2024. The company reported its first-ever GAAP profit in the fourth-quarter results and has seen a steady rise in user base. ...
- Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) enjoyed an impressive run in 2023. ...
- The electric vehicle (EV) industry has had a rough road.
S.No. | Name | CMP Rs. |
---|---|---|
1. | Life Insurance | 981.45 |
2. | Hindustan Zinc | 410.90 |
3. | I R C T C | 1025.45 |
4. | Lloyds Metals | 731.75 |
- Greenply Industries. ...
- Cyient. ...
- Kotak Mahindra Bank. ...
- Paushak. ...
- Wonderla Holidays. ...
- Pitti Engineering. ...
- NMDC. ...
- Eicher Motors.
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.) And the outlook is for another fantastic year.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
Bear markets occur when prices in a market decline by more than 20%, often accompanied by negative investor sentiment and a weakening economy. Bear markets can be cyclical or longer-term. The former lasts for several weeks or a couple of months and the latter can last for several years or even decades.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.